How the valuation odds are calculated
Gambling houses have a negative attitude towards mathematical betting. As soon as a player starts to calculate the possible risks and to be guided by strategy, the bookmaker’s income drops. For this reason, it is not profitable for the betting company for the client to start making mathematical bets. In such a situation, the value of the final result of the match and the principle of distributing the pot are taken into account. The following will look at margin and valuation and the principle of calculating expected profits.
What sports betting strategies are there?
A strategy is a sensible approach to money management when betting on sporting events. If a player starts using it, he will start winning much more often.
There are 5 popular strategies in total:
- Flat;
- Kelly criterion;
- D’Alamber’s strategy;
- Fixed percentage;
- Martingale.
How do I find my margin?
The odds are the probability of a certain tournament result calculated by taking into account the bookmaker’s margin. The margin is the commission charged by the gambling establishment. It is required by the betting shop in order to make a profit on sports betting. It is not uncommon for an organisation to go into deficit after a match or tournament is over, but it is the margin that allows the bank to make a good profit over the distance.
The following formula is used to calculate the probability of events (where K is the odds):
P = 1/K
To calculate the margin you have to use another formula (S in this case is the sum of the probabilities of the 1st market match):
M = (S-1) * 100%
With the help of these formulas it will be possible to calculate the margin, and then use the information obtained for strategies.
Method for calculating the jackpot bet
There is no way for the bookmaker to determine the exact probability of the outcome of a particular match. The analysts try to take into account different non-gambling and gambling factors. When analysing unpopular championships, the bookmaker is often unaware of certain parameters. Because of this, a number of outcomes are undervalued. Bets placed on them are commonly referred to as jacks.
A person will be faced with a gross if:
K * P > 1. In this formula, the letter P is the probability derived from the player’s calculations.
To make it clearer, we can use an example. For instance, in a match the odds offered by a bookie are 2.25 to win the away team, 3.60 to win the home team and 3.05 to win the draw.
The punter analyses the team statistics and concludes that there is a 38% probability of the contest taking place without a winner.
The wager should now be evaluated using the formula:
3.05 * 0.38 = 1.159 > 1. In this case the bet will be regarded as a waggish bet. Kelly’s strategy is to bet money on such events.
Expectations and dispersion
Expected payoffs are the anticipated returns of different bets that have the same probability of occurring.
To calculate mathematical expectation the following formula is used:
N * F * (K * P -1)
P – is the probability as estimated by the player.
N – is the number of made bets.
F – is the value of the bet.
The above calculation was made for a match with a 38% probability of a draw. If everything is correct, and a person makes 30 bets with a similar principle for the amount of 23 euros, the expected profit will be 110 euros. This is the result if the above formula is used.
Dispersion is an unequal distribution taking into account the mathematical expectation of the probability percentage of an event. For instance, in the case of a coin flip there will be a 50% chance that the reverse or the reverse will fall out. A coin may fall several times in a row with one flip.
If you learn how to calculate the probability of outcomes correctly and manage the pot by strategy, mathematical betting on sporting events will start to make a profit.